Political predictions are difficult to make. During every presidential election, millions of people watch television late into the night, wanting to know, state by state, where their candidate of choice stands. Predictions are made as the votes come in. Keep in mind, though, the cautionary tale of the 1948 Presidential election between Dewey and Truman. Before the polls closed, Dewey was so far ahead of Truman that The Chicago Tribune lead with the headline “Dewey Defeats Truman”. As it turned out, Truman ended up winning that election though an upset victory shortly after the story of his defeat went to press.
The prediction of who will make a great president has a cautionary tale of its own. The public generally believes that a good President is someone that has enjoyed success in the political arena. Contrary to that notion, President Abraham Lincoln, over a span of approximately 30 years, lost six separate political bids. Then, in 1860, he became President. He was one of the strongest and most successful Presidents, holding the country together during the Civil War, and, with impeccable timing, delivering The Emancipation Proclamation on the heals of Union victory at Antietam.
Be sure to keep these stories in mind before making a political prediction.